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Američka Demokratska stranka osigurala je većinu u Senatu ove subote, nakon pobjede aktualne senatorice Catherine Cortez Mastro protiv Adama Laxalta, republikanskog izazivača, kojeg je podržao bivši predsjednik Donald Trump. Bitka za većinu u Donjem domu kongresa još uvijek je neizvjesna, s republikancima u laganoj prednosti, no bilo kakva većina vjerojatno će biti tanka - težak udarac za republikance, čak i ako izađu kao pobjednici. Demokrati trenutačno slave veliki uspjeh, no rezultati ih vode u veliki problem uoči sljedećih predsjedničkih izbora, koji su mogli izbjeći da su izgubili ovogodišnje međuizbore. Problem koji se zove Joe Biden.
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Da su izbori ispunili očekivanja republikanaca i brojnih političkih analitičara, te da je došlo do očekivanog "crvenog vala" u kojem bi konzervativci osvojili premoćnu većinu u Donjem domu i većinu u Senatu, bilo bi jasno da je Joe Biden politički potrošen, te kako ga je potrebno zamijeniti drugim kandidatom uoči predsjedničkih izbora. Guverner Kalifornije Gavin Newsom, koji je ponovno izabran na tu poziciju, s razlikom od 16 poena ispred protukandidata, već je bio spreman krenuti u utrku - svoja je sredstva za promociju trošio i izvan Kalifornije, gdje mu nisu bila ni potrebna.
No, neočekivani trijumf demokratske stranke dao je i vjetar u leđa Bidenu, kojem je sada otvoren prostor za pokušaj osvajanja i drugog mandata na izborima 2024. Radi se o problemu, jer je Biden duboko nepopularan predsjednik - uživa podršku tek 40% birača, a čak tri četvrtine glasača demokrata voljelo bi da se ne kandidira ponovno.
Najstariji predsjednik
Njegovi izgledi protiv nekog svježeg republikanskog kandidata u startu su dosta slabi, i to čak i ako zanemarimo njegovu poodmaklu dob i sve češće gafove za govornicama. Ovaj će tjedan Biden slaviti 80. rođendan, a drugi mandat, ako bi bio izabran, završio bi kao 86-godišnjak.
Uspjeh demokrata na međuizborima prošlog tjedna uistinu je bio povijesni - samo triput u povijesti SAD-a je vladajuća stranka na prvim međuizborima novog predsjednika izgubila manje od 10 zastupnika u Donjem domu, te nije izgubila niti jedno mjesto u Senatu. To su postigli Franklin Roosevelt 1934., John F. Kennedy 1962. i George W. Bush 2002., i sva tri puta to se smatralo nevjerojatnim uspjehom predsjednikove stranke.
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Ono što je drugačije u ovom slučaju je to što je Roosevelt u oba mandata bio iznimno popularan predsjednik, a i Kennedy i Bush imali su potporu iznad 60% za održavanja međuizbora. Za prvih međuizbora Busha mlađeg, cijela je država još uvijek bila u šoku zbog napada 11. rujna, i većina građana okupila se oko nekad nepopularnog predsjednika.
Većina analitičara smatra kako se Bidenu ne mogu pripisati zasluge za sadašnji rezultat. Većina republikanskih kandidata - čak 330 ih je odabrao i podržao Donald Trump - imala je problem što se nisu sviđali glasačima. U svim anketama prije izbora, demokratski kandidati bili su većinom prihvatljiviji široj publici nego njihovi protivnici. Iako su i Trump i Biden ušli u izbore nepopularni među glasačima, čak 40% onih kojima se nisu sviđali niti jedan niti drugi, glasalo je za demokrate. Prije 12 godina, tek 21% onih koji nisu voljeli ni Busha ni Baracka Obamu glasalo je za demokrate.
Amerikanci su na izborima pokazali da, iako ne žele Bidena, Trumpa (i njegove kandidate) žele još manje, no što će se dogoditi ako se Bidenu na predsjedničkim izborima suprotstavi novi republikanski kandidat? Kako piše The Times, brojni demokrati iza kulisa strahuju da Biden nema izgleda ni protiv koga, osim možda Trumpa.
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Harris samo simbol
Veliki je problem i to što se potpredsjednica Kamala Harris nije uspjela isprofilirati u vidljivu i popularnu političarku. Bidenov originalni plan bio je odraditi jedan mandat i njoj prepustiti sljedeće izbore, no Harris je ostala samo simbol onoga što konzervativci zamjeraju liberalima - raznolikost koja je sama sebi svrha. Harris u Bijeloj kući nije utjecajan političar s vizijom, ona je žena, crnkinja i azijatkinja.
Dok Biden važe treba li se kandidirati za još jedan mandat, demokratima istječe vrijeme da izgrade i predstave novog kandidata, novu, mlađu osobu, koja bi mogla predstavljati srednju struju stranke, prihvatljivu dovoljnom broju neodlučnih glasača.
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Američka Demokratska stranka osigurala je većinu u Senatu ove subote, nakon pobjede aktualne senatorice Catherine Cortez Mastro protiv Adama Laxalta, republikanskog izazivača, kojeg je podržao bivši predsjednik Donald Trump. Bitka za većinu u Donjem domu kongresa još uvijek je neizvjesna, s republikancima u laganoj prednosti, no bilo kakva većina vjerojatno će biti tanka - težak udarac za republikance, čak i ako izađu kao pobjednici. Demokrati trenutačno slave veliki uspjeh, no rezultati ih vode u veliki problem uoči sljedećih predsjedničkih izbora, koji su mogli izbjeći da su izgubili ovogodišnje međuizbore. Problem koji se zove Joe Biden.
---
---
Da su izbori ispunili očekivanja republikanaca i brojnih političkih analitičara, te da je došlo do očekivanog "crvenog vala" u kojem bi konzervativci osvojili premoćnu većinu u Donjem domu i većinu u Senatu, bilo bi jasno da je Joe Biden politički potrošen, te kako ga je potrebno zamijeniti drugim kandidatom uoči predsjedničkih izbora. Guverner Kalifornije Gavin Newsom, koji je ponovno izabran na tu poziciju, s razlikom od 16 poena ispred protukandidata, već je bio spreman krenuti u utrku - svoja je sredstva za promociju trošio i izvan Kalifornije, gdje mu nisu bila ni potrebna.
No, neočekivani trijumf demokratske stranke dao je i vjetar u leđa Bidenu, kojem je sada otvoren prostor za pokušaj osvajanja i drugog mandata na izborima 2024. Radi se o problemu, jer je Biden duboko nepopularan predsjednik - uživa podršku tek 40% birača, a čak tri četvrtine glasača demokrata voljelo bi da se ne kandidira ponovno.
Najstariji predsjednik
Njegovi izgledi protiv nekog svježeg republikanskog kandidata u startu su dosta slabi, i to čak i ako zanemarimo njegovu poodmaklu dob i sve češće gafove za govornicama. Ovaj će tjedan Biden slaviti 80. rođendan, a drugi mandat, ako bi bio izabran, završio bi kao 86-godišnjak.
Uspjeh demokrata na međuizborima prošlog tjedna uistinu je bio povijesni - samo triput u povijesti SAD-a je vladajuća stranka na prvim međuizborima novog predsjednika izgubila manje od 10 zastupnika u Donjem domu, te nije izgubila niti jedno mjesto u Senatu. To su postigli Franklin Roosevelt 1934., John F. Kennedy 1962. i George W. Bush 2002., i sva tri puta to se smatralo nevjerojatnim uspjehom predsjednikove stranke.
---
---
Ono što je drugačije u ovom slučaju je to što je Roosevelt u oba mandata bio iznimno popularan predsjednik, a i Kennedy i Bush imali su potporu iznad 60% za održavanja međuizbora. Za prvih međuizbora Busha mlađeg, cijela je država još uvijek bila u šoku zbog napada 11. rujna, i većina građana okupila se oko nekad nepopularnog predsjednika.
Većina analitičara smatra kako se Bidenu ne mogu pripisati zasluge za sadašnji rezultat. Većina republikanskih kandidata - čak 330 ih je odabrao i podržao Donald Trump - imala je problem što se nisu sviđali glasačima. U svim anketama prije izbora, demokratski kandidati bili su većinom prihvatljiviji široj publici nego njihovi protivnici. Iako su i Trump i Biden ušli u izbore nepopularni među glasačima, čak 40% onih kojima se nisu sviđali niti jedan niti drugi, glasalo je za demokrate. Prije 12 godina, tek 21% onih koji nisu voljeli ni Busha ni Baracka Obamu glasalo je za demokrate.
Amerikanci su na izborima pokazali da, iako ne žele Bidena, Trumpa (i njegove kandidate) žele još manje, no što će se dogoditi ako se Bidenu na predsjedničkim izborima suprotstavi novi republikanski kandidat? Kako piše The Times, brojni demokrati iza kulisa strahuju da Biden nema izgleda ni protiv koga, osim možda Trumpa.
---
---
Harris samo simbol
Veliki je problem i to što se potpredsjednica Kamala Harris nije uspjela isprofilirati u vidljivu i popularnu političarku. Bidenov originalni plan bio je odraditi jedan mandat i njoj prepustiti sljedeće izbore, no Harris je ostala samo simbol onoga što konzervativci zamjeraju liberalima - raznolikost koja je sama sebi svrha. Harris u Bijeloj kući nije utjecajan političar s vizijom, ona je žena, crnkinja i azijatkinja.
Dok Biden važe treba li se kandidirati za još jedan mandat, demokratima istječe vrijeme da izgrade i predstave novog kandidata, novu, mlađu osobu, koja bi mogla predstavljati srednju struju stranke, prihvatljivu dovoljnom broju neodlučnih glasača.
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20. svibanj 2024 10:30
