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Broj novozaraženih raste diljem svijeta i mnoge zemlje iznova uvode strože mjere koje generiraju dodatno javno nezadovoljstvo. Nasuprot tome, ili baš zbog toga, mnogobrojni epidemiološki stručnjaci sve češće tvrde kako je kraj pandemije nadohvat ruke i gotovo već opipljiv, piše Slobodna Dalmacija.
Jesu li razlozi takvog iznenadnog optimizma samo u relaksiranju iscrpljenih i nervno prenapregnutih masa ili sve ipak ima dublje utemeljenje, nitko još pouzdano ne zna.
Više nego znakovit istup imao je ovih dana jedan od predstavnika najvećih svjetskih koronaprofitera, predsjednik uprave Pfizera Albert Bourla. U intervjuu za francusku televiziju BFM on je rezolutno ustvrdio da će aktualni val covid-varijante omikron biti posljednji u kojemu ćemo morati živjeti pod restrikcijama.
Bourla nije oglasio posvemašnji i konačni kraj korone, nego vjerojatni scenarij po kojemu će virus još godinama cirkulirati među svjetskom populacijom, no u mjeri koja omogućuje povratak normalnom životu i navikama. Najavio je da će i cjepivo posve učinkovito protiv omikrona biti spremno već u ožujku, te je otklonio bojazni kako će čovječanstvo morati primiti četvrtu dozu kako bi se obranilo od zaraze, pošto još ne postoje dokazi o njezinoj potrebi ili učinkovitosti.
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Bourla se, nasuprot tome, založio za booster, odnosno treću vakcinaciju kao jako važnu i cjelovitu zaštitu od težih posljedica zaraze koronavirusom.
I Peter Piot, virolog Londonske škole za higijenu i tropsku medicinu, soj omikron i cjepivo smatra dobrima za opći kolektivni imunitet, te dijeli prognoze o posljednjoj fazi korone kojoj upravo svjedočimo. Virus slabi, a zahvaljujući cjepivu pada i smrtnost, pa doista vjerujem da idemo u smjeru postizanja kolektivnog imuniteta, ustvrdio je u razgovoru za HRT.
Njegovo mišljenje dijele i dr. Marco Cavaleri iz Europske agencije za lijekove (EMA), britanski ministar obrazovanja Nadhim Zahawi, te još nekolicina uglednih eksperata epidemiologije.
Dr. Stipan Jonjić iz Rijeke, kao naš ponajbolji epidemiolog, ističe da nitko još sa sigurnošću ne može predvidjeti tijek ove pandemije, premda postoje mnoga znanstveno utemeljena mišljenja da bismo tijekom ove godine trebali ući u sigurnije razdoblje i da bi se kontrola virusa mogla svesti na ono što se zove endemija.
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Teško je reći koliko će štete svijetu ubuduće nanositi endemija koronavirusa, no najčešće se kao primjer kako bi to moglo izgledati spominje klasična gripa. Određeni broj hospitalizacija i smrti postojati će neizostavno svake godine, na razini planeta možda i stotine tisuća umrlih, no dosadašnja pogibelj trebala bi ipak biti u znatno manjim razmjerima.
Jonjić ističe kako se optimistične prognoze da pandemija završava baziraju na tome što je značajan dio čovječanstva procijepljen ili je već stekao otpornost preboljenjem covida, no on drži da je još prerano za trube pobjede.
Za endemiju je karakterističan lokalni, regionalni, i donekle predvidljivi trend širenja zaraze. Korona bi se u tom slučaju svela na usamljene 'otoke' ili 'džepove' oboljelih diljem svijeta, no što se tiče endemičnosti još smo daleko, smatra i dr. Catherine Smallwood, viša službenica za hitne slučajeve Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije (WHO).
Ona napominje kako endemičnost pretpostavlja da, prije svega, postoji stabilna cirkulacija virusa na predvidljivim razinama te potencijalno poznati i predvidljivi valovi prijenosa epidemije. Svi se moramo suzdržati od ponašanja kao da je riječ o endemiji, jer je to jako opasno prije nego što se sam virus počne ponašati endemski, pojašnjava dr. Smallwood.
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Po njoj, još nismo ni blizu endemije. Prijelaz u endemičnost često se vidi samo retrospektivno, a trenutno smo, napominje, od toga "još uvijek daleko".
I dr. Lawrence Young sa Sveučilišta Warwick u Velikoj Britaniji misli da su to samo puke želje, daleko od realnosti.
Razumijevanje endemičnosti podrazumijeva i razumijevanje onoga što ona nije, tj. da to ne znači kako je virus netragom nestao ili kapitulirao. Jedan od blažih oblika koronavirusa koji može uzrokovati prehladu endemski karakter ima već dugo, piše New Scientist, no svejedno utječe da oko 45.000 ljudi svaki dan oboli, i to samo u Velikoj Britaniji.
Mnogi upozoravaju kako je prerano označiti virus kao endemski u trenutku dok se još uvijek širi i potencijalno razvija, osobito u velikim dijelovima necijepljenog svijeta. WHO često ističe kako će samo jednakost cjepiva ubrzati kraj pandemije, a nejednakost u pravu na cjepivo samo će je produžiti, bez obzira na potrebu za optimizmom i nadom u skoru normalnost.
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Broj novozaraženih raste diljem svijeta i mnoge zemlje iznova uvode strože mjere koje generiraju dodatno javno nezadovoljstvo. Nasuprot tome, ili baš zbog toga, mnogobrojni epidemiološki stručnjaci sve češće tvrde kako je kraj pandemije nadohvat ruke i gotovo već opipljiv, piše Slobodna Dalmacija.
Jesu li razlozi takvog iznenadnog optimizma samo u relaksiranju iscrpljenih i nervno prenapregnutih masa ili sve ipak ima dublje utemeljenje, nitko još pouzdano ne zna.
Više nego znakovit istup imao je ovih dana jedan od predstavnika najvećih svjetskih koronaprofitera, predsjednik uprave Pfizera Albert Bourla. U intervjuu za francusku televiziju BFM on je rezolutno ustvrdio da će aktualni val covid-varijante omikron biti posljednji u kojemu ćemo morati živjeti pod restrikcijama.
Bourla nije oglasio posvemašnji i konačni kraj korone, nego vjerojatni scenarij po kojemu će virus još godinama cirkulirati među svjetskom populacijom, no u mjeri koja omogućuje povratak normalnom životu i navikama. Najavio je da će i cjepivo posve učinkovito protiv omikrona biti spremno već u ožujku, te je otklonio bojazni kako će čovječanstvo morati primiti četvrtu dozu kako bi se obranilo od zaraze, pošto još ne postoje dokazi o njezinoj potrebi ili učinkovitosti.
---
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Bourla se, nasuprot tome, založio za booster, odnosno treću vakcinaciju kao jako važnu i cjelovitu zaštitu od težih posljedica zaraze koronavirusom.
I Peter Piot, virolog Londonske škole za higijenu i tropsku medicinu, soj omikron i cjepivo smatra dobrima za opći kolektivni imunitet, te dijeli prognoze o posljednjoj fazi korone kojoj upravo svjedočimo. Virus slabi, a zahvaljujući cjepivu pada i smrtnost, pa doista vjerujem da idemo u smjeru postizanja kolektivnog imuniteta, ustvrdio je u razgovoru za HRT.
Njegovo mišljenje dijele i dr. Marco Cavaleri iz Europske agencije za lijekove (EMA), britanski ministar obrazovanja Nadhim Zahawi, te još nekolicina uglednih eksperata epidemiologije.
Dr. Stipan Jonjić iz Rijeke, kao naš ponajbolji epidemiolog, ističe da nitko još sa sigurnošću ne može predvidjeti tijek ove pandemije, premda postoje mnoga znanstveno utemeljena mišljenja da bismo tijekom ove godine trebali ući u sigurnije razdoblje i da bi se kontrola virusa mogla svesti na ono što se zove endemija.
---
---
Teško je reći koliko će štete svijetu ubuduće nanositi endemija koronavirusa, no najčešće se kao primjer kako bi to moglo izgledati spominje klasična gripa. Određeni broj hospitalizacija i smrti postojati će neizostavno svake godine, na razini planeta možda i stotine tisuća umrlih, no dosadašnja pogibelj trebala bi ipak biti u znatno manjim razmjerima.
Jonjić ističe kako se optimistične prognoze da pandemija završava baziraju na tome što je značajan dio čovječanstva procijepljen ili je već stekao otpornost preboljenjem covida, no on drži da je još prerano za trube pobjede.
Za endemiju je karakterističan lokalni, regionalni, i donekle predvidljivi trend širenja zaraze. Korona bi se u tom slučaju svela na usamljene 'otoke' ili 'džepove' oboljelih diljem svijeta, no što se tiče endemičnosti još smo daleko, smatra i dr. Catherine Smallwood, viša službenica za hitne slučajeve Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije (WHO).
Ona napominje kako endemičnost pretpostavlja da, prije svega, postoji stabilna cirkulacija virusa na predvidljivim razinama te potencijalno poznati i predvidljivi valovi prijenosa epidemije. Svi se moramo suzdržati od ponašanja kao da je riječ o endemiji, jer je to jako opasno prije nego što se sam virus počne ponašati endemski, pojašnjava dr. Smallwood.
---
---
Po njoj, još nismo ni blizu endemije. Prijelaz u endemičnost često se vidi samo retrospektivno, a trenutno smo, napominje, od toga "još uvijek daleko".
I dr. Lawrence Young sa Sveučilišta Warwick u Velikoj Britaniji misli da su to samo puke želje, daleko od realnosti.
Razumijevanje endemičnosti podrazumijeva i razumijevanje onoga što ona nije, tj. da to ne znači kako je virus netragom nestao ili kapitulirao. Jedan od blažih oblika koronavirusa koji može uzrokovati prehladu endemski karakter ima već dugo, piše New Scientist, no svejedno utječe da oko 45.000 ljudi svaki dan oboli, i to samo u Velikoj Britaniji.
Mnogi upozoravaju kako je prerano označiti virus kao endemski u trenutku dok se još uvijek širi i potencijalno razvija, osobito u velikim dijelovima necijepljenog svijeta. WHO često ističe kako će samo jednakost cjepiva ubrzati kraj pandemije, a nejednakost u pravu na cjepivo samo će je produžiti, bez obzira na potrebu za optimizmom i nadom u skoru normalnost.
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[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 15
[alias] => no_index
)
[14] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 74
[name] => No-cache
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 16
[alias] => no_cache
)
[15] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 77
[name] => Don't show on the front page
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 17
[alias] => dont_show_on_the_front_page
)
[16] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 78
[name] => Related on bottom
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 18
[alias] => related_on_bottom
)
[17] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 79
[name] => Live button
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 19
[alias] => live_button
)
[26] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 87
[name] => Instant articles
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 28
[alias] => instant_articles
)
[27] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 91
[name] => S preporučuje
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 29
[alias] => s_preporucuje
)
[28] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 92
[name] => S voli
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 30
[alias] => s_voli
)
[29] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 93
[name] => Layout with three photos
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 31
[alias] => layout_with_three_photos
)
[30] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 94
[name] => Gallery in the article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 32
[alias] => gallery_in_the_article
)
[31] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 95
[name] => Required views
[value] => 0
[type] => textfield
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 33
[alias] => required_views
)
[32] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 96
[name] => FullHD image
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 34
[alias] => fullhd_image
)
[33] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 98
[name] => Paid Article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 36
[alias] => paid_article
)
)
20. svibanj 2024 02:19