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[title] => Politolog iz Šibenika komentirao rezultate izbora: ‘Bit će jako napeto...‘
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Tko će formirati parlamentarnu većinu nakon izbora i koji scenariji su mogući, razgovarali smo u izbornoj noći s profesorom Goranom Čularom s Fakulteta političkih znanosti, piše Jutarnji list
Profesor politologije Goran Čular je istaknuo da su rezultati dosta slični onima sa zadnjih parlamentarnih izbora u srpnju 2020. HDZ je osvojio nekoliko mandata manje nego prije četiri godini Domovinski pokret također, Možemo nekoliko mandata više. Druga Čularova opaska je da veliki skok izlaznost i- a ona je čak 16 posto veća nego četiri godine ranije - nije donijela očekivanu promjenu u ishodu izbora. "Mobilizacija je, ističe, bila na lijevom spektru, ali je očito da se značajna mobilizacija birača dogodila i na desnom spektru.
"Što se tiče sastavljanja parlamentarne većine", kazao nam je Čular, "prilično je značajan prvi govor Ivana Penave koji nije isključio razgovore s HDZ-om. Dakle, moguće je da će HDZ otpočeti pregovore s Domovinskim pokretom i nacionalnim manjinama. Hoće li DP u tome imati uvjetovanja na koja HDZ neće moći pristati, u ovom trenutku ne možemo znati. Međutim rezultati su takvi da HDZ samo s nacionalnim manjinama bez neke treće stranke nema šansu sastaviti vladu. HDZ može ići i na neko cijepanje Domovinskog pokreta ali to je možda korak za neku drugu fazu, ako pregovori ne uspiju odmah", ističe Čular i dodaje: "Ako rezultati u konačnici budu ovakvi kao sada, onda je desnica pobijedila, iako u HDZ-u to nije svima drago. Sad je jedino pitanje koliko će Domovinski pokret tu pobjedu iskoristiti da unutar HDZ ojača desnu struju koja je nakon zadnjih unutarstranačkih izbora bila oslabljena".
Na pitanje ima li Plenković mogućnost formirati većinu mimo Domovinskog pokreta, Čular odgovara kako sumnja da HDZ može formirati većinu bez njih. "Možda kroz pregovore može ići na dio Domovinskog pokreta. Vidjeli smo u izbornoj noći da je Kolakušić reagirao različito od Penave, ali Kolakušićev glavni fokus nije Sabor, već su izbori za EP i ako dobije ono što ga zanima vjerojatno neće stvarati problem..
Na pitanje je li moguć scenarij prema kojem bi se oko SDP-a formirala većina, politolog Goran Čular odgovara da je takav scenarij moguć samo ako bi se na istoj strani s lijevim strankama SDP-om Možemo! našli i Domovinski pokret, Most i zastupnici manjina. Samo u takvom širokom savezu takav rasplet bi bio moguć, ističe Čular i dodaje: "Bit će jako napeto u smislu prikupljanja potpisa koje smo uveli kao standard i pretpostavljam da će proteći dosta vremena dok netko predsjedniku Republike ne donese 76 potpisa, naravno pod uvjetom da se Domovinski pokret i HDZ brzo ne dogovore oko većine".
Je li ulijetanje Milanovića u kampanju SDP-u i lijevim strankama nešto donijelo? Profesor Čular odgovara da nije puno jer je SDP na ovim izborima osvojio podjednak broj mandata kao i Bernardić 2020. "Međutim, s druge strane vrlo je vjerojatno da Milanovićevom utjecaju treba pripisati dio ove izlaznosti na izbore, iako ta izlaznost nije naročito pogodovala ljevici već je mobilizirala i svojevrsni otpor birača na desnici, ističe Čular, piše Jutarnji list
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Goran Čular
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Tko će formirati parlamentarnu većinu nakon izbora i koji scenariji su mogući, razgovarali smo u izbornoj noći s profesorom Goranom Čularom s Fakulteta političkih znanosti, piše Jutarnji list
Profesor politologije Goran Čular je istaknuo da su rezultati dosta slični onima sa zadnjih parlamentarnih izbora u srpnju 2020. HDZ je osvojio nekoliko mandata manje nego prije četiri godini Domovinski pokret također, Možemo nekoliko mandata više. Druga Čularova opaska je da veliki skok izlaznost i- a ona je čak 16 posto veća nego četiri godine ranije - nije donijela očekivanu promjenu u ishodu izbora. "Mobilizacija je, ističe, bila na lijevom spektru, ali je očito da se značajna mobilizacija birača dogodila i na desnom spektru.
"Što se tiče sastavljanja parlamentarne većine", kazao nam je Čular, "prilično je značajan prvi govor Ivana Penave koji nije isključio razgovore s HDZ-om. Dakle, moguće je da će HDZ otpočeti pregovore s Domovinskim pokretom i nacionalnim manjinama. Hoće li DP u tome imati uvjetovanja na koja HDZ neće moći pristati, u ovom trenutku ne možemo znati. Međutim rezultati su takvi da HDZ samo s nacionalnim manjinama bez neke treće stranke nema šansu sastaviti vladu. HDZ može ići i na neko cijepanje Domovinskog pokreta ali to je možda korak za neku drugu fazu, ako pregovori ne uspiju odmah", ističe Čular i dodaje: "Ako rezultati u konačnici budu ovakvi kao sada, onda je desnica pobijedila, iako u HDZ-u to nije svima drago. Sad je jedino pitanje koliko će Domovinski pokret tu pobjedu iskoristiti da unutar HDZ ojača desnu struju koja je nakon zadnjih unutarstranačkih izbora bila oslabljena".
Na pitanje ima li Plenković mogućnost formirati većinu mimo Domovinskog pokreta, Čular odgovara kako sumnja da HDZ može formirati većinu bez njih. "Možda kroz pregovore može ići na dio Domovinskog pokreta. Vidjeli smo u izbornoj noći da je Kolakušić reagirao različito od Penave, ali Kolakušićev glavni fokus nije Sabor, već su izbori za EP i ako dobije ono što ga zanima vjerojatno neće stvarati problem..
Na pitanje je li moguć scenarij prema kojem bi se oko SDP-a formirala većina, politolog Goran Čular odgovara da je takav scenarij moguć samo ako bi se na istoj strani s lijevim strankama SDP-om Možemo! našli i Domovinski pokret, Most i zastupnici manjina. Samo u takvom širokom savezu takav rasplet bi bio moguć, ističe Čular i dodaje: "Bit će jako napeto u smislu prikupljanja potpisa koje smo uveli kao standard i pretpostavljam da će proteći dosta vremena dok netko predsjedniku Republike ne donese 76 potpisa, naravno pod uvjetom da se Domovinski pokret i HDZ brzo ne dogovore oko većine".
Je li ulijetanje Milanovića u kampanju SDP-u i lijevim strankama nešto donijelo? Profesor Čular odgovara da nije puno jer je SDP na ovim izborima osvojio podjednak broj mandata kao i Bernardić 2020. "Međutim, s druge strane vrlo je vjerojatno da Milanovićevom utjecaju treba pripisati dio ove izlaznosti na izbore, iako ta izlaznost nije naročito pogodovala ljevici već je mobilizirala i svojevrsni otpor birača na desnici, ističe Čular, piše Jutarnji list
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18. svibanj 2024 21:20
