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Epidemiolog dr. Bernard Kaić, voditelj Službe za epidemiologiju HZJZ-a, kazao je kako će britansko iskustvo u narednim tjednima, ako se otvaranje pokaže opravdanim, moći poslužiti kao primjer drugim državama, ali samo onima koje imaju visoku cijepljenost stanovništva. Hrvatska zasad nije u tom klubu.

Velika Britanija je pak prvom dozom cijepila gotovo 70 posto stanovništva, a drugom 55 posto. Među starijima cijepljenost je visokih 85 posto.

– Ne znam što će se događati u Velikoj Britaniji, to će pokazati vrijeme. To ovisi o tome koliko su zaštićeni cijepljenjem oni koji su glavni kandidati za hospitalizaciju, prvenstveno starije osobe. Koliko sam shvatio, tamo su postigli velike cjepne obuhvate kod starijih ljudi i računaju da neće puniti bolnice jer su stari zaštićeni, a mladi obolijevaju od blažih oblika bolesti. Hoće li tako biti, pokazat će se nakon nekoliko tjedana, izjavo je Kaić za Novi list.

U svakom će slučaju, dodao je, jedan od naših vodećih epidemiologa, biti korisno vidjeti taj ishod. Jer ako se taj model pokaže uspješnim u Velikoj Britaniji, i neke druge zemlje mogu razmišljati o uvođenju sličnih modela. Ali uz uvjet da imaju jako dobru cijepljenost starijeg stanovništva, upozorava.

– Da bi se Hrvatska upustila u takvo otvaranje, trebala bi imati najmanje 80 posto cijepljene starije populacije. Kod nas je među starijima najbolja cijepljenost u onih od 70 do 74 godine, gdje je gotovo 80 posto ljudi primilo prvu dozu. U dobi od 80 do 84 godine cijepljeno ih je prvom dozom 60 posto, što je premalo, a u dobi od 85 do 89 godina samo 53 posto. Nije mi jasno zašto, veli Kaić. Hrvatska, dakle, u slučaju ukidanja većine mjera ne može računati s niskom stopom hospitalizacije jer je velik broj starijih osoba necijepljen.

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Tolga Akmen
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– Taj je broj prevelik. Ako bi broj novooboljelih jako rastao, imali bismo puno hospitaliziranih, upozorio je kaić za Novi list.

O tome koliko bi se hrvatskih građana moglo cijepiti do kraja ljeta, odnosno do boljeg uvida u britanski eksperiment, u HZJZ-u ne žele ni nagađati. »Nemamo nikakvih projekcija o tome, teorijski bi se mogli cijepiti skoro svi s obzirom na količinu cjepiva«, poručio je Kaić. Po njegovu je mišljenju odaziv na cijepljenje posljednjih nekoliko tjedana solidan jer se dnevno prvom dozom cijepi između 5.000 i 10.000 ljudi, a drugom između 10.000 i 15.000 građana.

Dok se u slučaju Velike Britanije spekulira o tome koliko su protiv dominantnog delta soja zaštićeni cjepivom AstraZenece, kojim su se najviše cijepili, u HZJZ-u kažu da zapravo nema znatnih razlika među cjepivima.

– Kakva god učinkovitost cjepiva bila, što viša cijepljenost, to bolje. Zasad se nije pokazalo da delta soj uspješno izbjegava imunosni odgovor ni na AstraZenecu, ni na Pfizer. Kod svih tih cjepiva za nekoliko je postotaka ta zaštita niža nego kod vuhanskih sojeva, ali ne u toj mjeri da bismo gledali tko je čime cijepljen, veli Kaić. Jedino se za cjepiva koja nisu registrirana u EU-u ne zna učinkovitost.

Britanski eksperiment mogao bi, navodi Novi list, dovesti do većeg broja oboljelih, no ako to ne bude značilo i mnogo hospitalizacija, bit će to dokaz da društvo može podnijeti slobodno kretanje virusa u populaciji sa 70-ak posto cijepljenih.

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Epidemiolog dr. Bernard Kaić, voditelj Službe za epidemiologiju HZJZ-a, kazao je kako će britansko iskustvo u narednim tjednima, ako se otvaranje pokaže opravdanim, moći poslužiti kao primjer drugim državama, ali samo onima koje imaju visoku cijepljenost stanovništva. Hrvatska zasad nije u tom klubu.

Velika Britanija je pak prvom dozom cijepila gotovo 70 posto stanovništva, a drugom 55 posto. Među starijima cijepljenost je visokih 85 posto.

– Ne znam što će se događati u Velikoj Britaniji, to će pokazati vrijeme. To ovisi o tome koliko su zaštićeni cijepljenjem oni koji su glavni kandidati za hospitalizaciju, prvenstveno starije osobe. Koliko sam shvatio, tamo su postigli velike cjepne obuhvate kod starijih ljudi i računaju da neće puniti bolnice jer su stari zaštićeni, a mladi obolijevaju od blažih oblika bolesti. Hoće li tako biti, pokazat će se nakon nekoliko tjedana, izjavo je Kaić za Novi list.

U svakom će slučaju, dodao je, jedan od naših vodećih epidemiologa, biti korisno vidjeti taj ishod. Jer ako se taj model pokaže uspješnim u Velikoj Britaniji, i neke druge zemlje mogu razmišljati o uvođenju sličnih modela. Ali uz uvjet da imaju jako dobru cijepljenost starijeg stanovništva, upozorava.

– Da bi se Hrvatska upustila u takvo otvaranje, trebala bi imati najmanje 80 posto cijepljene starije populacije. Kod nas je među starijima najbolja cijepljenost u onih od 70 do 74 godine, gdje je gotovo 80 posto ljudi primilo prvu dozu. U dobi od 80 do 84 godine cijepljeno ih je prvom dozom 60 posto, što je premalo, a u dobi od 85 do 89 godina samo 53 posto. Nije mi jasno zašto, veli Kaić. Hrvatska, dakle, u slučaju ukidanja većine mjera ne može računati s niskom stopom hospitalizacije jer je velik broj starijih osoba necijepljen.

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image
Tolga Akmen
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– Taj je broj prevelik. Ako bi broj novooboljelih jako rastao, imali bismo puno hospitaliziranih, upozorio je kaić za Novi list.

O tome koliko bi se hrvatskih građana moglo cijepiti do kraja ljeta, odnosno do boljeg uvida u britanski eksperiment, u HZJZ-u ne žele ni nagađati. »Nemamo nikakvih projekcija o tome, teorijski bi se mogli cijepiti skoro svi s obzirom na količinu cjepiva«, poručio je Kaić. Po njegovu je mišljenju odaziv na cijepljenje posljednjih nekoliko tjedana solidan jer se dnevno prvom dozom cijepi između 5.000 i 10.000 ljudi, a drugom između 10.000 i 15.000 građana.

Dok se u slučaju Velike Britanije spekulira o tome koliko su protiv dominantnog delta soja zaštićeni cjepivom AstraZenece, kojim su se najviše cijepili, u HZJZ-u kažu da zapravo nema znatnih razlika među cjepivima.

– Kakva god učinkovitost cjepiva bila, što viša cijepljenost, to bolje. Zasad se nije pokazalo da delta soj uspješno izbjegava imunosni odgovor ni na AstraZenecu, ni na Pfizer. Kod svih tih cjepiva za nekoliko je postotaka ta zaštita niža nego kod vuhanskih sojeva, ali ne u toj mjeri da bismo gledali tko je čime cijepljen, veli Kaić. Jedino se za cjepiva koja nisu registrirana u EU-u ne zna učinkovitost.

Britanski eksperiment mogao bi, navodi Novi list, dovesti do većeg broja oboljelih, no ako to ne bude značilo i mnogo hospitalizacija, bit će to dokaz da društvo može podnijeti slobodno kretanje virusa u populaciji sa 70-ak posto cijepljenih.

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Damir Krajac/Cropix Tolga Akmen
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StoryEditorOCM
HrvatskaEpidemiolog Bernard Kaić:

Daleko je nama britanski model otvaranja, za njega moramo imati 80 postotnu procijepljenost starije populacije

Piše PSD
24. srpnja 2021. - 10:24
17811736
PREMIUM
Damir Krajac/Cropix

Epidemiolog dr. Bernard Kaić, voditelj Službe za epidemiologiju HZJZ-a, kazao je kako će britansko iskustvo u narednim tjednima, ako se otvaranje pokaže opravdanim, moći poslužiti kao primjer drugim državama, ali samo onima koje imaju visoku cijepljenost stanovništva. Hrvatska zasad nije u tom klubu.

Velika Britanija je pak prvom dozom cijepila gotovo 70 posto stanovništva, a drugom 55 posto. Među starijima cijepljenost je visokih 85 posto.

– Ne znam što će se događati u Velikoj Britaniji, to će pokazati vrijeme. To ovisi o tome koliko su zaštićeni cijepljenjem oni koji su glavni kandidati za hospitalizaciju, prvenstveno starije osobe. Koliko sam shvatio, tamo su postigli velike cjepne obuhvate kod starijih ljudi i računaju da neće puniti bolnice jer su stari zaštićeni, a mladi...

#BERNARD KAIĆ#BRITANSKI MODEL#CIJEPLJENJE COVID
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14. svibanj 2024 11:57