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Bivši američki ministar financija Larry Summers rekao je da bi nezaposlenost u SAD-u morala značajno porasti tijekom duljeg vremenskog razdoblja kako bi se ekonomija mogla oduprijeti inflaciji koja pustoši globalna tržišta.

"Treba nam pet godina nezaposlenosti iznad 5 posto da bismo obuzdali inflaciju - drugim riječima, potrebne su nam dvije godine nezaposlenosti od 7,5 posto ili pet godina nezaposlenosti od 6 posto ili jedna godina nezaposlenosti od 10 posto", objasnio je Summers u govoru u Londonu pred desetak dana. pa dodao: "Postoje brojke koje su izrazito obeshrabrujuće u odnosu na stav Federalnih rezervi", prenosi Forbes.

Nezaposlenost u SAD-u trenutno se nalazi na 3,6 psoto nakon što su poslodavci u svibnju uspjeli dodati 390.000 radnih mjesta. Inflacija povijesno ima obrnut odnos s nezaposlenošću, što znači da kada je inflacija visoka, nezaposlenost je obično niska. U osnovnom makroekonomskom principu i prema mišljenju Summersa, veća nezaposlenost bi značila da ljudi imaju manji raspoloživi dohodak za kupnju dobara, smanjujući potražnju i smanjujući cijene tj. inflaciju.

"Razlika između 7,5 posto nezaposlenosti za dvije godine i 4,1 posto nezaposlenosti u jednoj godini je ogroman", rekao je Summers, dodajući: "Je li naša središnja banka spremna učiniti ono što je potrebno za stabilizaciju inflacije ako je potrebno nešto poput onoga što sam procijenio?"

Jedna od opasnosti je da će nezaposlenost i inflacija ispasti iz uobičajenog obrnutog odnosa i ostaviti gospodarstvo u razdoblju visoke nezaposlenosti i visoke inflacije – ili stagflacije, što je pojam za koji je interes na Googleu značajno porastao tijekom prošlog mjeseca.

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Wieslaw Smetek/Photononstop Via Afp
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Posljednji put kada je svijet. doživio stagflaciju je nakon 1973. iza kolapsa valutnog sustava Bretton Woodsa i napuštanja zlatnog standarda. Suočen s rastućom visokom inflacijom, šef Fed-a Paul Volcker je slavno podigao kamatnu stopu federalnih fondova — koja trenutno iznosi između 1,50 i 1,75 posto — na iznad 20 posto, što je dovelo do uzastopnih recesija 1981. i 1982. i rekordno visoke nezaposlenosti, ali i vraćanja inflacije na upravljive razine.

Summers kaže da će možda trebati ponovno poduzeti istu drastičnu akciju. "Sad. možda ćemo trebati jednako ozbiljno monetarno pooštravanje kao što je to Volcker progurao u kasnim 1970-im i ranim 1980-ima”, rekao je.

Summers je također sugerirao da bi Fed trebao biti oprezan oko toga koliko komunicira s javnošću o tome kako planira nastaviti s pooštravanjem monetarne politike. “Povratak poniznosti, napuštanje uloge vođe kao političkog alata, sasvim je prikladno. Vjerojatno će biti potrebno donijeti mnogo teže izbore nego prvotno razmatrano prihvaćanje labavosti i trajne visoke inflacije. Na taj način, bojim se da ćemo imati i elemente stagnacije i stagflacije", poručio je.

Fed je prošlog tjedna podigao kamatne stope za 75 baznih bodova, što je najveće povećanje od 1994., i signalizirao da očekuje još jedno veliko povećanje u srpnju, i to između 50 i 75 postotaka. Iz centralne banke su poručili da će učiniti sve što je potrebno kako bi držali cijene pod kontrolom, rekavši da je njihova predanost obuzdavanju inflacije "bezuvjetna" te da je stabilnost neophodna za podršku snažnom tržištu rada.

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Bivši američki ministar financija Larry Summers rekao je da bi nezaposlenost u SAD-u morala značajno porasti tijekom duljeg vremenskog razdoblja kako bi se ekonomija mogla oduprijeti inflaciji koja pustoši globalna tržišta.

"Treba nam pet godina nezaposlenosti iznad 5 posto da bismo obuzdali inflaciju - drugim riječima, potrebne su nam dvije godine nezaposlenosti od 7,5 posto ili pet godina nezaposlenosti od 6 posto ili jedna godina nezaposlenosti od 10 posto", objasnio je Summers u govoru u Londonu pred desetak dana. pa dodao: "Postoje brojke koje su izrazito obeshrabrujuće u odnosu na stav Federalnih rezervi", prenosi Forbes.

Nezaposlenost u SAD-u trenutno se nalazi na 3,6 psoto nakon što su poslodavci u svibnju uspjeli dodati 390.000 radnih mjesta. Inflacija povijesno ima obrnut odnos s nezaposlenošću, što znači da kada je inflacija visoka, nezaposlenost je obično niska. U osnovnom makroekonomskom principu i prema mišljenju Summersa, veća nezaposlenost bi značila da ljudi imaju manji raspoloživi dohodak za kupnju dobara, smanjujući potražnju i smanjujući cijene tj. inflaciju.

"Razlika između 7,5 posto nezaposlenosti za dvije godine i 4,1 posto nezaposlenosti u jednoj godini je ogroman", rekao je Summers, dodajući: "Je li naša središnja banka spremna učiniti ono što je potrebno za stabilizaciju inflacije ako je potrebno nešto poput onoga što sam procijenio?"

Jedna od opasnosti je da će nezaposlenost i inflacija ispasti iz uobičajenog obrnutog odnosa i ostaviti gospodarstvo u razdoblju visoke nezaposlenosti i visoke inflacije – ili stagflacije, što je pojam za koji je interes na Googleu značajno porastao tijekom prošlog mjeseca.

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Wieslaw Smetek/Photononstop Via Afp
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Posljednji put kada je svijet. doživio stagflaciju je nakon 1973. iza kolapsa valutnog sustava Bretton Woodsa i napuštanja zlatnog standarda. Suočen s rastućom visokom inflacijom, šef Fed-a Paul Volcker je slavno podigao kamatnu stopu federalnih fondova — koja trenutno iznosi između 1,50 i 1,75 posto — na iznad 20 posto, što je dovelo do uzastopnih recesija 1981. i 1982. i rekordno visoke nezaposlenosti, ali i vraćanja inflacije na upravljive razine.

Summers kaže da će možda trebati ponovno poduzeti istu drastičnu akciju. "Sad. možda ćemo trebati jednako ozbiljno monetarno pooštravanje kao što je to Volcker progurao u kasnim 1970-im i ranim 1980-ima”, rekao je.

Summers je također sugerirao da bi Fed trebao biti oprezan oko toga koliko komunicira s javnošću o tome kako planira nastaviti s pooštravanjem monetarne politike. “Povratak poniznosti, napuštanje uloge vođe kao političkog alata, sasvim je prikladno. Vjerojatno će biti potrebno donijeti mnogo teže izbore nego prvotno razmatrano prihvaćanje labavosti i trajne visoke inflacije. Na taj način, bojim se da ćemo imati i elemente stagnacije i stagflacije", poručio je.

Fed je prošlog tjedna podigao kamatne stope za 75 baznih bodova, što je najveće povećanje od 1994., i signalizirao da očekuje još jedno veliko povećanje u srpnju, i to između 50 i 75 postotaka. Iz centralne banke su poručili da će učiniti sve što je potrebno kako bi držali cijene pod kontrolom, rekavši da je njihova predanost obuzdavanju inflacije "bezuvjetna" te da je stabilnost neophodna za podršku snažnom tržištu rada.

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Svijetzvuči veselo

Bivši američki ministar financija predlaže: ‘Da se spasimo od inflacije nam treba duže razdoblje visoke nezaposlenosti. Jesmo li spremni učiniti što treba?‘

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1. srpnja 2022. - 09:57
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Saul Loeb/Afp

Bivši američki ministar financija Larry Summers rekao je da bi nezaposlenost u SAD-u morala značajno porasti tijekom duljeg vremenskog razdoblja kako bi se ekonomija mogla oduprijeti inflaciji koja pustoši globalna tržišta.

"Treba nam pet godina nezaposlenosti iznad 5 posto da bismo obuzdali inflaciju - drugim riječima, potrebne su nam dvije godine nezaposlenosti od 7,5 posto ili pet godina nezaposlenosti od 6 posto ili jedna godina nezaposlenosti od 10 posto", objasnio je Summers u govoru u Londonu pred desetak dana. pa dodao: "Postoje brojke koje su izrazito obeshrabrujuće u odnosu na stav Federalnih rezervi", prenosi Forbes.

Nezaposlenost u SAD-u trenutno se nalazi na 3,6 psoto nakon što su poslodavci u svibnju uspjeli dodati 390.000 radnih mjesta. Inflacija povijesno i...

#INFLACIJA#FED#SUMMERS#NEZAPOSLENOST#EKONOMIJA#SAD
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22. svibanj 2024 09:45