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[title] => Zadarski sociolog Sven Marcelić: "Desnica u Hrvatskoj bolje prolazi u slabije razvijenim dijelovima države koji pritom gube stanovništvo"
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Zadarski sociolog Sven Marcelić je usporedio pad broja stanovnika s rezultatima na predsjedničkim izborima i došao do zanimljivog zaključka. Marcelić tvrdi kako "desnica u Hrvatskoj bolje prolazi u slabije razvijenim dijelovima države koji pritom gube stanovništvo". Kako je došao do tih rezultata pročitajte u nastavku.
POLITIKA I DEMOGRAFIJA
S obzirom na to da je popis stanovništva otvorio mnoštvo pitanja, u medijima se pisalo o raznim aspektima, analiziraju se mogući uzroci i razglaba pretežno senzacionalistički.
No, s druge strane može se primijetiti da se u hrvatskom društvu počinju nazirati neki zaista stabilni obrasci. U prošlom statusu pisao sam o procesima metropolizacije, suburbanizacije i litoralizacije (u međuvremu je Karlo Jurak napravio i analizu kretanja stanovništva u Zagrebu) i konstatirao kako su se oni mogli predvidjeti i na temelju ranijih podataka koje smo imali. Također, Marko Grdešić je pred neko vrijeme objavio i svoj drugi osvrt na crvenu i crnu Hrvatsku, bitan rad o determinantama glasačkih preferencija.
Nakon lokalnih izbora imao sam i neke statuse u kojima sam govorio o tome kako se polarizaciji hrvatskog društva može pristupiti i regionalno, odnosno da se u gradovima, ali i u razvijenijim dijelovima zemlje odvijaju procesi koji su vezani uz razvoj lijevih i liberalnih opcija, dok su u onim slabije razvijenim jače desne.
Pa evo, prvo prilažem kartu Hrvatske gdje se jedni kraj drugih vide rezultati prvih kruga izbora (crveno pobjeda Milanovića, plavo KGK, ljubičasto Škore), zatim rezultata popisa stanovništva (zeleno znači pad manji od državnog prosjeka) i konačno drugog kruga predsjedničkih izbora (Milanović crveni, KGK plava).
Jasno je da rezultati prate ono što sam konstatirao gore.
Ali, da stvar postane i nešto zanimljivija, krenuo sam gledati koliki je točno pad s obzirom na pobjednike i kako je tko od kandidata prošao s obzirom na rezultate popisa stanovništva.
Pa evo četiri konstatacije:
1. Tamo gdje je pobijedio Milanović imamo najmanji pad stanovništva, 7% (u odnosu na 11% Grabar Kitarović i 13.8% Škore).
2. Što je veći pad stanovništva to Škoro bolje prolazi.
3. U dijelovima Hrvatske koji su najviše gubili stanovništvo drugi krug vodio bi se između Grabar Kitarović i Škore.
4. U dijelovima Hrvatske koji su najviše gubili stanovništvo predsjednica bi bila Kolinda Grabar Kitarović.
Možemo za ovo tražiti različita objašnjenja, ali očito je da desnica u Hrvatskoj bolje prolazi u slabije razvijenim dijelovima države koji pritom gube stanovništvo.
Detaljnija demografska objašnjenja vjerojatno ćemo dobiti s novim rezultatima, osobito kad se objavi dobna i obrazovna struktura, ali ukupno gledano dobivamo vrlo jasne crte polarizacije hrvatskog društva.
Ono se, dakle, očituje i u jasnim demografskim trendovima.
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Zadarski sociolog Sven Marcelić je usporedio pad broja stanovnika s rezultatima na predsjedničkim izborima i došao do zanimljivog zaključka. Marcelić tvrdi kako "desnica u Hrvatskoj bolje prolazi u slabije razvijenim dijelovima države koji pritom gube stanovništvo". Kako je došao do tih rezultata pročitajte u nastavku.
POLITIKA I DEMOGRAFIJA
S obzirom na to da je popis stanovništva otvorio mnoštvo pitanja, u medijima se pisalo o raznim aspektima, analiziraju se mogući uzroci i razglaba pretežno senzacionalistički.
No, s druge strane može se primijetiti da se u hrvatskom društvu počinju nazirati neki zaista stabilni obrasci. U prošlom statusu pisao sam o procesima metropolizacije, suburbanizacije i litoralizacije (u međuvremu je Karlo Jurak napravio i analizu kretanja stanovništva u Zagrebu) i konstatirao kako su se oni mogli predvidjeti i na temelju ranijih podataka koje smo imali. Također, Marko Grdešić je pred neko vrijeme objavio i svoj drugi osvrt na crvenu i crnu Hrvatsku, bitan rad o determinantama glasačkih preferencija.
Nakon lokalnih izbora imao sam i neke statuse u kojima sam govorio o tome kako se polarizaciji hrvatskog društva može pristupiti i regionalno, odnosno da se u gradovima, ali i u razvijenijim dijelovima zemlje odvijaju procesi koji su vezani uz razvoj lijevih i liberalnih opcija, dok su u onim slabije razvijenim jače desne.
Pa evo, prvo prilažem kartu Hrvatske gdje se jedni kraj drugih vide rezultati prvih kruga izbora (crveno pobjeda Milanovića, plavo KGK, ljubičasto Škore), zatim rezultata popisa stanovništva (zeleno znači pad manji od državnog prosjeka) i konačno drugog kruga predsjedničkih izbora (Milanović crveni, KGK plava).
Jasno je da rezultati prate ono što sam konstatirao gore.
Ali, da stvar postane i nešto zanimljivija, krenuo sam gledati koliki je točno pad s obzirom na pobjednike i kako je tko od kandidata prošao s obzirom na rezultate popisa stanovništva.
Pa evo četiri konstatacije:
1. Tamo gdje je pobijedio Milanović imamo najmanji pad stanovništva, 7% (u odnosu na 11% Grabar Kitarović i 13.8% Škore).
2. Što je veći pad stanovništva to Škoro bolje prolazi.
3. U dijelovima Hrvatske koji su najviše gubili stanovništvo drugi krug vodio bi se između Grabar Kitarović i Škore.
4. U dijelovima Hrvatske koji su najviše gubili stanovništvo predsjednica bi bila Kolinda Grabar Kitarović.
Možemo za ovo tražiti različita objašnjenja, ali očito je da desnica u Hrvatskoj bolje prolazi u slabije razvijenim dijelovima države koji pritom gube stanovništvo.
Detaljnija demografska objašnjenja vjerojatno ćemo dobiti s novim rezultatima, osobito kad se objavi dobna i obrazovna struktura, ali ukupno gledano dobivamo vrlo jasne crte polarizacije hrvatskog društva.
Ono se, dakle, očituje i u jasnim demografskim trendovima.
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10. svibanj 2024 21:31
